The EURGBP slid further lower on Thursday after the YouGov MRP poll results predicted a landslide victory for the Conservative Party in the UK election scheduled to hold in about 2 weeks from today.
The YouGov MRP poll model correctly called the 2017 poll outcome for 93% of the seats that were up for election, which is why yesterday’s poll is attracting a lot of attention in the market. According to the YouGov poll, the Conservative Party is set to win 359 seats, 42 more than in 2017, along with 43% of the vote count. The poll also indicates that the Labour Party is set to lose 51 seats, which would see them garner 211 seats and 32% of the vote count.
The results are based on a timeline of elections happening within 24 hours of the poll release, and if this were to be the final election outcome, this would be the best performance of the Conservative Party in an election process in 32 years.
The poll results were viewed by the market as GBP-positive, since a Conservative majority increases the likelihood of an orderly Brexit. Therefore, the EURGBP was on offer for most of the London session, pushing the pair below yesterday’s identified support levels at 0.8530. Price is now trading at 0.8511.
The next downside target if price continues to head south would have to be at the 0.84712 price level, which corresponds to the previous low of March 14. On the flip side, price recovery would target 0.8530 and 0.8565, in that order.