The EUR/USD is tilting higher ahead of a busy market day with loads of data from the United States. Most economic numbers that normally come out on Thursday will come out today because tomorrow is a public holiday. The EURUSD is already up by 0.90% this week and is a few pips below its September high.
FOMC minutes will be the most important economic data released today because they will provide a clear picture of what Fed officials deliberated on in their past meeting.
While the US Q3 GDP data is important, it will probably have no major impact on the EUR/USD. That’s because investors already expect the data to show that the economy soared by more than 30%. However, a big surprise, which is unlikely, will lead to significant volatility on the pair.
The EUR/USD will also react to durable goods data, jobless claims, mortgage applications, new home sales, and personal income numbers.
In my last update, I predicted that the EUR/USD would retest the 1.1800 level. That was wrong as the price resumed its upward trend and retested its previous high. Looking at the four-hour, we see that the price is slightly below the important resistance at 1.1920, which is the highest it has been since November 9. The price remains above the important 25-day moving average.
Therefore, for today, I suspect that the EURUSD will attempt to recapture this month’s high and possibly move to 1.1925. The alternate scenario is where the price retreats slightly and moves back below 1.1900.
