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Ethereum Price Ripe for Breakout, But DeFi Underperformance Drags Gains

Michael Abadha Blockchain market writer
    Summary:
  • Ethereum price ended last week in the red, and it has been trading sideways below $3,300. Its DeFi performance is at the centre of it.

Ethereum price returned to the upside on Monday, gaining 1.8 percent to trade at $3,131 at the time of writing. ETH recorded a dip in its performance last week, going down by 3.48 percent. Nonetheless, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation is still on an upbeat momentum, with the price above the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) on the daily chart.

The crypto market is still riding on the Trump wave, with the market capitalisation above $3 trillion. However, Ethereum has been trading sideways for the last four days, ranging between $3,015 and $3,215. ETH was previously rejected at $3,447, signaling a potential psychological barrier at $3,500. Moreover, a move past the $3,300 mark will break it out from the recent sideways trajectory.

According to IntoTheBlock data, Ethereum’s 30-day price correlation with Bitcoin is at 0.91. While that is a strong positive correlation, it also shows that Ethereum’s price gain trails Bitcoin’s. Notably, Ethereum’s performance in the DeFi space has declined in the last week.

Ethereum’s DeFi struggles

According to data aggregation site DeFiLlama, Ethereum’s Total Volume Locked (TVL) dropped by 1.1 percent in the last seven days, making it the only loser among the top ten DeFi chains. Six of the DeFi chains, including Solana, Tron, Sui, Bitcoin, Avalanche and Hyperliquid have seen their TVLs grow by double digits.

Ethereum is the largest DeFi chain by TVL, accounting for more than 54 percent of the market value. Therefore, a resumption of the uptrend will largely depend on its performance on that front.

Ethereum price forecast

The momentum on Ethereum price signals control by the buyers above the $3,100 pivots mark. That will likely drive the coin to the first resistance at $3,133. However, if the buyers extend their control, the price could go above that level and test the second resistance at $3,165.

Conversely, the sellers will be in control if price moves below $3,100. In that case, the price could find the first support at $3,075. Extended control by the sellers will break below that mark and invalidate the upside narrative. Meanwhile, the price could decline further to test $3,050.