Gold Price Holds Above %5,100 As Geopolitical and Trade Tensions Persist

Gold price struggles to consolidate above $5,200 or build higher momentum beyond. It advances 0.84% or 42.81 points, trading around $5,187 per ounce as of 11:12 GMT+2 today. A buildup of the US military in the Middle East ahead of Thursday’s third round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations raises geopolitical concerns. This increases investors’ interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, early selling pressure on the US dollar provides gold with extra support, allowing prices to move higher during the day.

Apart from that, investors remain struggling because of renewed uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve has kept a hawkish tone amid positive economic data released recently. The minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that several Fed officials believe interest rate cuts may not be appropriate until inflation clearly continues to slow. In addition, recent comments from key policymakers suggest that the central bank is not in a rush to lower interest rates in the coming months, as inflation remains persistent.

Let’s take a technical look at the XAU/USD trading chart, highlighting the key levels to watch before exploring the fundamental factors driving the gold price and the latest US-Iran news update.

The Technical Outlook for Gold Price:

Gold has successfully broken above the green highlighted consolidation zone, where price had been trading sideways for an extended period. This breakout signals renewed bullish momentum and suggests that buyers have regained short-term control.

However, the price is still struggling to firmly consolidate above the upper boundary of the rectangle pattern. The $5,252 level is currently acting as immediate resistance. A decisive and sustained breakout above this barrier could open the door for a move toward the previous swing high near $5,610.

On the downside, the upper boundary of the former range around the $5,145–$5,180 region now acts as initial support. A pullback toward this zone could attract fresh buying interest, while a break back inside the range may weaken the bullish outlook in the near term.

The MACD indicator shows improving bullish momentum. The MACD suggests that upside momentum is still present. The RSI is hovering in the upper range, around the 60-65 region. This reflects bullish momentum without yt reaching overbought territory. This means that the indicator suggests that there is still room for further upside.

Key Takeaways on US-Iran News Update:

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal with the United States to avoid conflict is “within reach.”
• He emphasized that prioritizing diplomacy over military threats is essential to development.
• Iran reiterated that it wants the freedom to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes but will never create a nuclear weapon.
• Oman will mediate a fresh round of indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran in Geneva.
• Oman is hoping that all parties will go above and beyond to reach a deal.
• While declaring his preference for diplomacy, President Donald Trump issued a warning that he would not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
• Additionally, Trump asserted that Iran is producing missiles that might eventually be able to strike the US.

Key US Fundamentals Driving Gold Prices:

1. The US Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut rates:
   The Fed officials said they are in no hurry to lower interest rates because inflation remains sticky.
2. Hawkish tone from Fed policymakers:
   Boston Fed President Susan Collins supports keeping rates steady for now, while Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said current policy is well-positioned to handle economic risks.
3. Stronger consumer confidence data:
   The US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2, showing some improvement in economic sentiment.
4. Tariff uncertainty under Trump’s trade policy:
   The US imposed a 10% tariff on most imported goods, and there are plans to raise it to 15%. This increases fears of trade tensions and economic disruption.