- Brent crude surges past $71 a barrel for the first time since July as markets price in a "weeks-long" potential U.S. military campaign against Iran.
- Analysts warn that nearly 20% of global oil consumption is at risk if the Strait of Hormuz faces a sustained blockade or military disruption.
- WTI crude confirms a strong rebound off $62 support, marking its most powerful bullish session since October with a 4% intraday rally.
Global oil benchmarks are undergoing a violent repricing this Thursday as geopolitical posturing in the Middle East shifts from “rhetoric” to “readiness.” Brent crude futures climbed above the $71.00 threshold for the first time in over six months, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) cleared $66.00 in a sign that the “risk-on” sentiment is deepening.
The catalyst for the surge is a strategic pivot by Washington, which has positioned aircraft carriers, bombers, and significant naval assets around Iran, signaling that it has “credible strike options” should nuclear negotiations in Geneva fail.
While diplomacy remains the baseline through indirect talks facilitated by Oman and European intermediaries, the market is no longer viewing this as a temporary headline shock.
As noted by Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo, reports that a potential U.S. military operation could evolve into a sustained weeks-long campaign, under pressure from Israeli calls for regime change in Tehran, have forced traders to price in the risk of long-term supply disruptions.
Geopolitical Tensions Raise Strait of Hormuz Oil Supply Fears
At the heart of the current price surge is the vulnerability of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint.
- Volume at Risk: Between 19 million and 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products move through the Strait of Hormuz, nearly one-fifth of global daily consumption.
- Leverage Tactics: Traders are increasingly wary that Iran could utilize its naval presence to close the waterway in response to tightening U.S. sanctions on its exports to China.
- Pre-War Positioning: Recent military exercises by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) involving tanker maneuvers in the Strait have further heightened anxieties regarding the physical security of these shipments.
Brent Technical Analysis Today
Looking at the Brent Crude Oil 1W (Weekly) chart, we are seeing a significant structural shift. After a prolonged period of bearish pressure that saw prices bottom out near the $60.00 psychological floor in late 2025, the current weekly candle shows a powerful +5.71% ($3.83) advance. This move has successfully cleared the descending trendline that had capped gains throughout the previous quarter.
- Bullish Momentum: The price is currently hovering at $70.94, testing the upper boundary of its recent consolidation zone.
- Historical Context: This level is critical; it represents a “re-entry” into the higher trading range seen in mid-2024. If the weekly close stays above $71.00, it confirms a technical breakout, likely triggering algorithmic “buy” signals.
- Volume and Volatility: The size of the current green candle reflects a massive surge in buying conviction, consistent with the “violent repricing” of the geopolitical risk premium mentioned by Saxo analysts.
WTI Crude Oil Chart Analysis After 4% Weekly Rally
| Indicator | Level / Value | Market Sentiment |
| Current Price (WTI) | $66.095 | Bullish Breakout |
| Primary Support | $62.00 | Strong Demand Zone |
| Psychological Resistance | $70.00 | Next Major Target |
| Brent Performance | $70.94 | 5.71% Weekly Advance |
The weekly Brent chart confirms a “V-shaped” recovery from the $60.00 floor, with the current candle representing the strongest buying conviction seen in 2026. Similarly, WTI’s surge past the $62.00 support confirms that the “geopolitical risk premium” is now being institutionalized by long-term traders.
According to market analyst Matt Simpson, the recent price action reinforces the importance of the $62 support zone. While the daily trend is now constructive, caution is warranted as prices push toward cycle highs. Dip buyers are expected to emerge on pullbacks within Wednesday’s range, provided the bullish momentum holds toward the $70.00 region.
Brent and WTI Technical Outlook Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
Despite the military buildup, the fundamental outlook remains a tug-of-war between aggressive posturing and active diplomacy. Large speculators have been trending toward a net-long position in WTI futures for several weeks, yet overall sentiment remains far from historical extremes, leaving room for a massive upside explosion if a limited strike is confirmed.
For now, the “geopolitical risk premium” is firmly embedded in the price. Unless nuclear talks in Geneva yield a breakthrough off-ramp, the path of least resistance for Brent and WTI remains higher, with the $70.00 and $75.00 levels respectively acting as the next major technical battlegrounds.
Crude Oil & Geopolitics FAQs
It handles nearly 20% of global oil consumption, making any disruption a catastrophic threat to global energy stability.
While military assets are deployed, analysts suggest this is currently “pressure and leverage” to force Iran back into nuclear negotiations.
It is the additional cost added to oil due to the possibility of supply disruptions, currently estimated at $4–$5 per barrel.