Dax Index Ready for a Breakout – Bullish or Bearish?

Summary:

Dax index looks bullish as the EUR/USD exchange rate eases from the highs. More downside on the Euro bodes well for Dax bulls.

Dax index remains well bid while it keeps an eye on the 14,000 level. At this point in time, both bulls and bears may have a case, as Dax decouples a bit from what happens with the United States stock market.

Yesterday’s move lower in the U.S. stocks due to Powell’s speech did not affect the Dax index. The weaker EUR/USD exchange rate bodes well for the European indices, after more than half a year when the exchange rate remained at elevated levels. As such, the more the Euro declines, the more support the Dax index and other European indices may find.

While everyone is focused on today’s NFP report, Dax traders already have their eyes on next week’s main event – the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and press conference. Because the yields rose in the United States, the rise has put pressure on the Bund as well. However, unlike the Fed, the ECB has room to maneuver as it can adjust the PEPP asset-buying, thus easing some more. More easing should lead to a weaker Euro and a higher stock market.

Dax Index Technical Analysis

The technical perspective looks both bullish and bearish. On the bullish side, the inversed head and shoulders, in black, typically shows higher levels when it appears in the middle of a rising trend. Therefore, bulls may want to wait for a break and close above 14,200 before going long for the measured move and a stop to 13,750.