Crude Oil Price Prediction After OPEC’s Adjusted Forecast for Q4’21

Summary:
• Bulls are defending the support t $82 after crude oil price dropped from $85.50 earlier in the week. Volatility may continue.

Crude oil price is trading within a tight range after dropping from the month’s high of $85.50 earlier in the week. The commodity has been under pressure as inflation concerns boost the US dollar.

On Thursday, OPEC indicated that soaring energy prices will likely dampen global oil demand in the current quarter. The coalition lowered its Q4’21 demand forecast by 330,000 bpd compared to the past month’s prediction. In the previous week, it highlighted its decision to maintain its output cuts by increasing production by a modest 400,000 bpd in December.

Crude oil price forecast

Brent futures are trading on a tight range on the last session of the week that the oil market has proven volatile. Since early September, crude oil price was in the green for seven consecutive weeks. However, over the past three weeks, supply and demand dynamics have poked holes on the bull run.

Granted, the commodity is still holding steady above the crucial support level of 80 as the market rides on expectations of heightened demand. After its plunge on Wednesday, Brent futures has largely been trading within a tight range of between 82 and 83.

At the time of writing, it was down by 0.48% at 82.12. In the previous session, it formed the bearish death cross pattern as the short-term 50-day EMA crossed below the long-term 200-day EMA.

Based on both the fundamentals and technicals, it will likely remain under pressure in the short term. From this perspective, it may continue trading within the aforementioned horizontal channel. Below the channel’s lower border, the support level may be at 81.50. On the flip side, a move above the upper border may have crude oil price face resistance along the 200-day EMA at 83.31 as 83.50 remains evasive in the near term.