Copper Price Could Correct to $8500/ton, But Long-Term Bullish Bias Remains

Summary:

Commerzbank predicts a short-term correction of copper prices to $8500 per ton, but retains the long-term bullish bias in the commodity.

Commerzbank is predicting that the price of copper per tonne would dip to $8500. The prediction was provided by Senior FICC Technical Analyst at the bank, Axel Rudolph. However, the analysis is conditional, requiring the February 2021 top at $9617 to stay intact.

In his words, “potential support comes in between the December and January high, the 55-day moving average and 6-month support at 8238.00/8028.00”. However, the bank insists on copper price retaining long-term bullishness, consequent upon the late December/January lows at 7705.00/7673.00 staying intact. Rudolph believes that the uptrend could target the February and August 2011 highs of 905.00/10190.00 if the February 2021 top at 9617.00 gives way.

This outlook reflects the current situation, where the dip in PMI data from the CLFP and Caixin both show a reduction in factory activity. This only led to a transient drop in copper prices on Monday, before Tuesday’s rebound.

Technical Outlook for Copper Prices

The market sentiment of copper traders presently shifts towards dip-buying. Today’s upswing challenges the 4.2015 resistance (9262.72 per ton), with a break above the February 2021 high at 4.3630 ($9618/ton) establishing the higher high needed for the further upside move that targets the August and December 2011 highs at 4.5400 and 4.6465 respectively.

On the flip side, a breakdown of the ascending trendline allows copper prices to dip towards 3.9970, with additional dip targets at 3.9535, 3.8340 and the November 2011 high at 3.7345. An additional downside target also exists at 3.7945. Only a breakdown of the March 2013 high at 3.4895 negates the uptrend bias and points to a deeper correction.