- - Gold price predictions indicate more volatility in the week ahead.
- - This article presents the drivers of gold price predictions for the week.
Gold has had a rollercoaster week, with gold price forecasts being tested to the hilt by the volatility that has hit the markets.
As expected, gold (XAU/USD) opened the week with an upside gap. It soared to new highs after the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran set off the geopolitical risk premium to its highest levels in decades. The market then shifted its focus to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran closed on Monday. The blockade is now under threat, as the US President has promised military action to clear the shipping route used to transport 20% of the world’s oil and LNG. Gold prices unwound almost immediately, dropping more than $200 to find a low at $4995 an ounce. It is back on the upside and trades at $5,186 an ounce as of writing.
The entire price picture indicates that gold is back in a crisis-bid, high-volatility state. Two opposing forces are now driving gold prices.
- Safe-haven demand is surging once more as the strikes on Iranian assets and militant groups allied to Iran continue unabated. The rocket response by Iran on Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia now risks turning the conflict into a wider, regional conflagration. The push into defensive assets was seen in the XAU/USD pair, which is up 1.95% on the day.
- Higher oil prices and the attendant inflation risk could cap any market upside, especially if markets start pricing in fewer rate cuts for 2026 than previously anticipated. This scenario will see bond yields and the US Dollar begin to find support.
Gold Price Prediction: The Week’s Catalysts
Three catalysts are likely to dictate gold price predictions for the week.
a) Will the Middle East conflict expand or stay confined?
This is actually the main driver of gold price action. Yes, there is now a conflict. But will the countries that bore the brunt of Iran’s retaliation join the conflict, and potentially use it as a springboard to go after regional enemies? Reuters has a report from several analysts that indicates a consensus that gold will remain above $5000 and retest recent peaks if the conflict broadens.
b) Will the oil price shock translate to inflation?
Several central banks were on the queue to either start easing or extend their easing pathways. If the spike in oil prices translates into higher inflation expectations, then the easing expectations may disappear altogether. Brent crude currently trades at $82 per barrel. If supply risks escalate due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iraqi output cuts, markets may begin to show worries for inflation persistence. This can heighten volatility in gold prices.
c) US Dollar and Fed easing expectations
Tapering of Fed easing expectations, as outlined above, could engineer a stronger US Dollar despite the geopolitical situation. Markets were reminded of this reality when gold prices fell 2.2% on Tuesday.
Weekly Gold Price Forecasts: Potential Scenarios
Base case: Gold prices remain bullish, but in a highly volatile environment. As long as the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, gold will continue to find support above $ 5,000. The dip to 4995 attracted fresh buying interest that took prices to 5165-5180 this Wednesday. Gold remains the cleanest safe-haven play this week.
Bull case: triggered by a further escalation of the conflict and higher oil prices. Risk assets will remain under pressure, allowing gold to retest its recent highs above $5350. Reuters reports that extension of safe-haven demand could lift prices to $5500-$5600, where the January all-time highs were found.
Bear case: this will be triggered by de-escalation (the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a cessation of bombings, markets repricing fewer Fed cuts in 2026, etc.). This will lead to a firmer US Dollar, causing safe-haven demand to unwind. Gold prices can head south, targeting a potential drop to $5000-$5150.
For the week, gold remains a buy-the-dip safe-haven play, with prices remaining supported but in a high-volatility environment. However, any signs of macro tightening can quickly fade rallies.
Gold Price Prediction: Technical Outlook
Gold prices are already showing the heightened volatility spoken of, as price action has thinned into a two-way consolidation between the 5154 support pivot and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the price swing on 3 March 2026 at 5205.
Price is now testing the lower boundary of this range. If the bulls hold 5154, we can expect another run-up to 5205. If this resistance is uncapped, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 5246 becomes the next upside touch point, followed by the 5284 resistance mark.
On the other hand, a breakdown of 5154 enables the bears to extend the decline towards the intraday low at 5105. Below this level, additional pivots are seen at 5079 and 5031 (S2 daily support), respectively. These become visible if 5105 is degraded.