- Gold price forecasts for the week will continue to depend on the war + oil price risk premia, along with central bank decisions.
Gold Price Forecasts: Current Setup and Live Chart
The dominant trading environment in the financial markets this Monday remains the “war -> oil shock -> rates” regime, with the Asian session and London trading setting the tone for safe-haven demand assets such as gold. Gold price forecasts for the week continue to centre around this narrative, with US Treasury yields moves also exerting some influence this Monday.
Gold price slipped in Asian and early London trading, falling by 1% initially as the 5018 support level continues to be the centre of attraction between buyers and sellers. The initial move south has faltered, and a recovery to this key price level has followed. Price is now steadying towards 5028 as the dollar opens the week on a slightly softer note.
Gold Price Activity in the Asian Session
1. The Early Dip: Gold fell nearly 1% in the Asian session, but quickly rebounded to $5022-$5028 as buyers bought into the dip. However, the dip buying appears to lack conviction to make a strong push to the north, as the 5018 support level risks a collapse that will turn it into a resistance.
2. Why did Asia buy the dip? The US Dollar opened slightly weaker, and US Treasury yields fell slightly, which has reduced the headwind that the yellow metal faced with the “higher for longer” rates narrative that beset the market the whole of last week. Furthermore, safe-haven demand is still in play as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. So far, several nations have distanced themselves from US President Donald Trump’s call for a naval coalition to escort ships and forcefully end the blockade. This leaves the geopolitical situation still on a tense footing and supporting the flight to safety.
Gold Price Forecasts: Macro Drivers for the Week
Gold continues to perform a two-way volatility playbook, rather than a straight directional safe-haven play. On the bullish end, the geopolitical risk premium and safe-haven demand remains intact due to the war and shipping disruption at Hormuz. However, a bearish pull could come from the risk of oil-driven inflation, which would slash near-term Fed easing expectations and keep real yields and the US Dollar supported.
Effectively, gold will continue to trade in two directions: bullish (safe-haven buying), and bearish (sell if Fed easing expectations are repriced higher).
Gold Prices: This Week’s Catalysts
1. Central banks
This week, several central banks will be delivering their interest rate decisions. At the center of it all, the Fed will be on tap on Wednesday 18 March. As of Q4 2025, the markets were predicting more easing to start from this meeting. The war in Iran has dissipated these expectations. So the focus now shifts to the policy communication. If the statement or press conference leans towards keeping rates “higher-for-longer” due to energy-related inflation, gold rallies may become capped. However, any hint of renewed easing in the near term supports a northside push.
2. Oil Price > $100
If oil prices remain above the $100 mark, the fears of global inflation will remain, which will promote the two-way volatility street.
3. Hormuz reopening news
Any moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, either by negotiation or force, will take out the risk out of gold very quickly, leading to a selloff. If the reopening efforts fail, the safe-haven appeal will continue to dominate.
Gold Price Forecasts: Weekly Forecast Scenarios
Base case: the gold price remains range-bound, with violent swings from one boundary to the other. Expect pullbacks within the upside move if there are occasional sharp bursts in the US real yields. This two-way swing behavior has been explained earlier in this piece. The boundaries of the week’s range have yet to be identified.
Bull case: the gold price is poised to push to new higher highs amid renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions. This is a typical safe-haven playbook.
Bear case: the bear case trigger will be a sustained rise in US yields driven by oil-driven inflationary fears, which will slash Fed easing expectations and strengthen the greenback. Keep an eye on the CME’s Fedwatch tool for signs of higher repricing of US interest rate expectations.
Gold Price Forecasts: Technical Outlook
Intraday, price action continues to oscillate between 4965 and 5037; these are the defined borders on the day. The 5037 price mark is a major support that now appears to have been degraded, serving as a resistance. As long as the price remains below this mark, the 4965 intraday support will come under renewed pressure. If this level is broken, a move towards the 4843 support (17 February low) cannot be ruled out.
However, if the price stays above 5037, the bulls have a renewed chance of pushing the price towards 5130 initially, with the highs of 23 February and 10 March 2026 forming a new upside target at 5239.
