The Uniswap price has rolled over in the last few days and showing similarities to rallies that previously failed, returning UNI to $15.00. Uniswap (UNI) has retraced almost 20% of the recent rally. As a result, the price is 30% below the September high and breaking down below the key moving averages.
When China banned offshore exchanges from offering services to the population in late September, Decentralized Exchange (DEX), Uniswap fared better than most. Following the announcement on the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) website, Binance and Huobi immediately withdrew support for mainland Chinese clients. As a result, the UNI token surged 57% as investors wagered that crypto traders would migrate from decentralized exchanges to their decentralized counterparts. Bullish momentum has faded after topping out at $28.07, and UNI is changing hands this morning at $23.20.
The daily chart shows that following the Crypto collapse in May, the Uniswap price has failed to recover. In each of the three significant rallies, the price has met with selling between $30-$34.00. Furthermore, after the May and June bounce, the Uniswap price dropped back into the $12-15.00 range. Notably, during the recent rally, Uniswap could not close above the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $26.38. Subsequently, UNI is below the 50 DMA at $24.96 and the 100 DMA at 23.79, increasing the negative outlook.
Until the price recovers the 200 DMA on a closing basis, the chance of a return towards $12-15.00 is high. Initial support is found at the September $18.00 low. Nonetheless, I maintain a bearish stance with a $15.00 price prediction. This view remains valid as long as the Uniswap price is below $26.39 on a closing basis.
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