The Solana price is on track for its fourth straight daily loss. But is this just a blip or the start of a meaningful devaluation? Solana (SOL) was blistering hot in Q3. Between the 20th of July and the 9th of September, the SOL token exploded 900% to a record price of $221. However, even Solana was not immune from the China-centric selling that crushed the crypto market for the rest of September.
As a result of Evergrande’s debt problems and China’s enhanced crypto ban, cryptocurrencies were clubbed in the final three weeks of September. As a result, Solana kicked off October 35% below the all-time high. The first twelve days of October has seen a broad recovery, albeit not evenly distributed. This morning, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a five-month high of $57,500, whilst the Solana price is flat on the month. Subsequently, SOL’s technicals are deteriorating, and the price is breaking down from the uptrend, which is concerning.
The daily chart shows that despite several bounces from a rising trend line in the last three weeks, Solana has run into overhead selling towards $180. In my opinion, this indicates longs that bought on the way up are offloading SOL tokens into rallies. Furthermore, if the Solana price continues to break down, long liquidation could trigger a cascade lower. The 50-day Moving Average (DMA) at $142.95 is providing some relief for the bulls. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heading into bearish territory, which highlights increasing exhaustion. If the decline gathers space, a logical target is the 100 DMA at $91.22, around 36% below the last trade.
I consider the bearish outlook probable unless SOL reclaims the rising trend line at $150. A positive return to trend would alleviate the immediate bearish pressure and suggest an extension towards the top of the supply zone at $180. However, SOL is vulnerable until the overhead selling is absorbed. Nonetheless, the immediate bearish view becomes invalid on a close above $150.
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