BTCUSD - Bitcoin
The Bitcoin price has started October in a bullish fashion, jumping 10% to $49,300 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed a crypto ban. Bitcoin (BTC) reached a high of $49,300 on Sunday, an increase of almost 20% from Thursday. The jump followed Powell insisting the US has no plans to follow China and outlaw cryptocurrencies. The remarks were well-received by the market, forcing shorts to cover and driving valuations higher across the board. Subsequently, traders are growing in confidence that the seasonally strong fourth-quarter trading period will bring higher prices.
This morning, the cryptocurrency market cap has climbed to $2.12 Trillion, close to a one-month high, as last week’s extreme fear eased on Powell’s comforting remarks. At the start of last week, the crypto fear and greed index showed traders were becoming ‘extremely fearful’, and maybe rightly so. The Bitcoin price had suffered a series of setbacks ins September and finished the month with its worst four-week performance since May’s collapse. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s technicals were showing signs of breaking down. However, the rally over the last four days has improved sentiment, lifting the technicals with it.
The daily chart shows the Bitcoin price found robust support at the 100-day moving average at $41,900. For most of last week, BTC flirted with the long-term indicator before pulling clear on Thursday. As a result, the Bitcoin price also reclaimed the 200 DMA at $45,053 and the 50 at $46,680. Whilst the turnaround is encouraging, the price is running into significant overhead resistance towards $50,000.
Considering the recent rally, I expect BTC to consolidate between $45,000 and $50k. BTC should trade with a bullish bias as long as it holds above $45,000. And on that basis, an extension towards the September high at $52,900 is possible soon. However, if the rally fades and BTC loses $45k support, it could trigger a leg lower to the 100 DMA at $41,900.
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