The Bitcoin Cash price has been left behind in this Bitcoin bull market so far. But usually, BCH eventually catches up with BTC. This morning, Bitcoin is up around 5% at $57,300, as it continues to carve a path towards $60k. However, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has improved by under 2% and is struggling to replicate its bigger rival’s winning ways.
Although the primary driver of Bitcoin’s rally is growing confidence that US regulators will soon sign off a BTC-based ETF, it should serve BCH in some capacity. If we compare the performance of the Bitcoin price Vs the Bitcoin cash price over the last 18 months, a correlation is evident. In the early part of 2020, BTC saw relative outperformance against BCH. However, both assets suffered similar-sized drops during the March 2020 crash. Since then, Bitcoin has outperformed, but to varying degrees. The below chart shows that Bitcoin pulled away from Bitcoin Cash in the second half of 2020 through Q1 2021. However, Bitcoin Cash outperformed in April, narrowing the gap considerably. As a result, at the peak of the 2021 bull market, BCH was up 390% YTD vs BTC +190%. Then came the crash.
The liquidation event in May ushered in the 2021 bear market. The Bitcoin Cash price lost 75% of its value through July, whereas BTC dropped 55% in the same time. Since then, Bitcoin has doubled from $28,800 to $57,600, with BCH improving by 55% from $384 to $600.
Similar to the first four months of this year, the gap between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash is looking stretched, which could signal an approaching period of outperformance for BCH. However, BCH priced against the dollar is facing some headwinds which it must first overcome.
The daily chart shows that despite a trend breakout, the Bitcoin Cash price has found resistance at the critical moving averages. Currently, at $594, BCH is sandwiched between the 100 DMA at $574.60 and the 500 DMA at $607.70. Furthermore, the inability to hurdle the 50 DMA has resulted in the Relative Strength Index showing signs of exhaustion, rolling over from 57.0 to 52.3. Similarly, if rejection at the 50 DMA causes BCH to surrender the 100-day, it could return below the trend support at $545, signalling a failed breakout.
However, successful clearance of the 50 DMA brings the significant 200 DMA into view. A decisive advance above the long term indicator at $670 would be highly constructive. In that event, the September high of $788 offers the first resistance level. Furthermore, if BCH clears the September high, it could extend to the April $1,216 peak.
In summary, a close above the 200-day moving average could signal BCH will outperform BTC. However, this relies on Bitcoin maintaining its bullish trend. Furthermore, if Bitcoin turns lower, driving Bitcoin Cash below $545, BCH could outperform on the downside.
For more market insights, follow Elliott on Twitter.