- Summary:
- AUDJPY and other AUD pairs are all falling today as weak AUstralian Employment data increase the odds of an interest rate cut by the RBA in February 2020.
The AUDJPY, AUDNZD and AUDUSD pairs are all trading sharply lower after disappointing Australian Employment data. The steep drop in the employment numbers could force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) into taking some further action sooner than expected.
Employment change in October fell by -19.0K, which was well below the +16.2K prediction of analysts. Unemployment rate also rose to 5.3%, above analysts’ estimates of 5.2%. A reduction in labour participation rate is the possible reason why the unemployment rate did not register at a higher figure. Some analysts are even saying that an increase in participation in latter months could drive unemployment rate up to 5.5%.
RBA Will Have to Cut Rates to Kickstart the Labour Sector
I indicated in my preview of the numbers that poor unemployment data would probably get the RBA to cut rates once more. The worse than expected labour numbers reinforce this position. If unemployment rates further increase to 5.5% on the back of greater participation rates, the RBA would have to cut rates by 25bps in its February meeting. Wage growth has also shown signs of dampening, which will lead to a fall in inflation, thereby providing an extra reason to send interest rates lower.
Technical Outlook on AUDJPY
The scenarios are now being priced in by the markets, and the AUDJPY and other AUD pairs are really feeling the pressure this Thursday. AUDJPY is down 0.96% on the day and there is room for further downside.
Today’s slump has taken the AUDJPY below the 74.30 support line (June 19 low and September 17 high). Price is now pushing towards the next support target at 73.21 (lows of October 14 – 16) and below this area, the September 23 low of 72.62 comes into focus. The price action is being reinforced by safe haven buying of the JPY in response to Tuesday’s speech by US President Trump which promised so much but delivered very little on trade issues.
On the flip side, any bullish recovery would probably have to be from the next support at 73.21, hoping for a short term retest of minor resistance at 73.69.