BTCUSD - Bitcoin
The Bitcoin price has recovered 5% this morning and is knocking on the door of $50,000. And this time, the conditions look right for BTC/USD to clear it. Despite a pop to $50,800 in late July, the psychological barrier has proven a tough nut to crack. For the last week, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has made several attempts to punch through, although until now has struggled. However, Friday’s options expiry may have removed some obstacles from the path higher.
Over the last month, the cryptocurrency market has erased the losses suffered in May, gaining a combined $600 billion market cap to $2.2 trillion. However, the gains have been primarily driven by surging altcoins such as Solana (SOL/USD) and Cardano (ADA/USD), which have printed new highs recently. And although BTC has traded higher, its failure to scale $50,000 has seen its crypto market dominance slip from $46.5% to 42.10% in the last four weeks. Ahead of last Friday’s options expiry, the price faced material overhead supply at $50,000 as options traders hedged their bullish call positions by selling Bitcoin. However, the next significant options expiry is not until the end of this month, which reduces the urgency to hedge, leaving plenty of time for BTC/USD to make its move. And it’s this lack of urgency that could send BTC beyond $50k to the next band of resistance at $58,500.
The daily chart shows the Bitcoin price has recently formed a rising trend channel with a series of higher lows. Although, up until now, BTC has been rebuffed at around $50,000. However, I expect this move to extend to the top end of the channel at $52,400. Furthermore, a decisive clearance of $52,400 would constitute a trend breakout and could lift the price towards February’s former record of $58,500.
This bullish outlook is valid as long as the trend channel remains intact. On that basis, a move below the trend support at $47,200 will invalidate this view.
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