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One of the most lucrative investments of the past decade has been Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL). The company’s portfolio includes some of the most innovative tech products, including the iPhone, iPad, Mac Book, and Apple Watch. The company has sold its products to hundreds of millions of users and has become the most valuable company in the world.
Apple became the first company in the world as its market capitalization hit $3 trillion in July 2023-exceeding the UK’s GDP at some point. However, that valuation has declined to $2.92 trillion as of this writing. Furthermore, the company ceded the number one most valuable company position to Microsoft in January 2024, and could lose the second spot to NVIDIA, which is valued at $2.67 trillion as of this writing-and rising fast.
AAPL stock ran into headwinds in 2024, with the stock hitting a six-month low of $164 on April 19. The stock lost 12 percent of its value between January and April 2024, with March losses being the largest, at 5.1 percent. The AAPL stock decline was, however, snapped on April 22, 10 days after the release of the company’s quarterly earnings. Also, the stock rose by more than 8 percent in the first 24 hours of its first quarter 2024 earnings release.
As of this writing, Apple stock price have returned to their highest level since early February and currently trade at $190.15. AAPL rose by 11.6 percent in May, the highest monthly gain since March 2023. However, it is still about 1.7 percent below the YTD high of $196.38 set in January. That said, May is the first month the stock has ended with gains since the beginning of the year 2024. One of Apple’s existential challenges is in the AI front where it trails key competitors. NVIDIA, in particular, has been setting the pace in the US equities market and has been largely dictating the tech industry sentiment in 2024.
Apple is the biggest corporate company in terms of market cap. Its stock is listed on NASDAQ stock exchange in the United States. The ticker symbol of Apple stock is AAPL. The price of AAPL is $190.15 as of this writing, which is around the same level it opened the year on January 2.
Berkshire Hathaway sold 116 million AAPL shares worth about $21 billion in the first quarter of 2024, as per fillings. The Apple stock had for a long time constituted about 50 percent of the Warren Buffet-led investment juggernaut, but currently constitutes about 40 percent. While this might trigger negative sentiment among some investors, it is worth noting that Berkshire took the decision to leverage the historically low corporation taxes of 21 percent.
On May 16, Apple CEO Tim Cook announced on X that the company would launch a suite of accessibility features that will enable customers to operate their iPads and iPhones using only their eyes. One of the key functionalities is eye tracking, which employs artificial intelligence to enable people with physical disability to use iOS and iPadOS. Later this year, iOS and iPadOS 18 will have these capabilities integrated.
The excitement about these new features is not so much about Apple’s focus on accessibility for all, but about the fact that the company is signaling strength in the AI front. Until now, Apple has trailed competitors in AI advancements, a factor that dampened optimism about its medium and long-term growth prospects.
That said, Apple seems to have ceded some ground in the AI race, if recent news reports are anything to go by. Bloomberg reported in May that the iPhone maker was negotiating with ChatGPT to integrate some of its features into its handsets. In addition, it has also been reported that the company is in talks with Google to integrate Gemini AI engine into its phones.
During the release of its first quarter 2024 earnings report, Apple announced that it would buy back $110 billion worth of stock. This historic buyback underlines the company’s strong financial muscle, and will certainly boost the stock price in the coming weeks.
One of the concerns bubbling under the AAPL stock price is the decline in sales in China. Apple’s sales in Greater China declined from $17.8 billion to $16.4 billion in the first quarter of 2024, underlining this reality. However, the performance exceeded analysts’ expectations, which had forecast sales of $15.3 billion.
In other news, CEO Tim Cook, COO Jeff Williams, CFO Luca Maestri, senior vice-president of retail Deirdre O’Brien and General counsel Katherine Adams sold $70 million worth of their APPL stock holdings in April.
The following NASDAQ: AAPL weekly chart shows that the stock had almost a 30% pullback in 2022. The stock hit its bottom on the first trading session of 2023 and has been in an unstoppable uptrend since then. In December 2023, the Apple share price surged to a new all-time high of $199.62. Therefore, despite the lull in 2024, the stock has proven its ability to make strong recoveries and erase losses.
The momentum on AAPL stock price signals that the sellers are in control. Furthermore, the downside will likely continue to prevail if they keep the price below the 190.49 pivot mark. That could establish the first support at 189.78. A continuation of that control will likely break the first support and potentially move the stock lower to test 189.08. Conversely, a move below 190.49 will favour the sellers to breach the resistance at 191.39, which would invalidate the downside narrative. Also, such a move could enable them to build momentum to test the psychological resistance level of 192.17 in extension.
In 2023, Apple shares appreciated steadily, with little resistance. However, 2024 is turning out to be the year of AI. Therefore, Apple has to “AI or burst”-and that means that it will likely spend significant sums of money in AI research and development to ensure it does not fall further back. If ther’s one thing technology has taught us, its the fact that it waits for no one. Nokia learnt the hard way, and Apple will be careful not to feel “too big to fail”. Furthermore, high-interest rates and increasing regulatory scrutiny could create a harsh business environment.
Also, iPhone sales declined to $46 billion from Q1 2023’s $51.3 billion, aligning with Apple’s narration at the beginning of the year. Also, the company did not come clean on its AI strategy, leaving room for speculation on its ability to take on rivals like Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA. That could limit the upside for Apple. That said, the $110 billion buyback is substantial by all standards, and could create momentum to propel the stock to new all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the fact that Apple is approaching rivals to help build its AI muscle is an indication that it is not “quite there” yet in the AI mega league. However, it could also be a strategic move to ensure that it does not invest its resources disproportionately into AI in the short-term, but takes it time to develop innovative/ disruptive AI solutions while ensuring that its platforms continue offering AI functionality to customers. The company will hold its famed Worldwide Developers Conference from June 10-14, and many observers are keen on this event as key to shinning the light on its next big product or service, especially in the AI front.
AAPL needs to stay above $182.73 level to sustain momentum for the upside. Short-term resistance is likely to come at the psycholical195.00 level, but a breach above this level could provide the bulls with greater propulsion. Furthermore, extended control by the buyers at that level could push the stock to test new all-time highs at $200.00 as shown on the upper side of the parallel channel. Conversely, a break below the support at the lower end of the channel at 164.82 could indicate bearishness.
Based on the trends seen in the first half of 2024, I expect Apple stock price to range between $170-$220 in 2025. Considering the current state of the global economy, I also expect a sideways price action by AAPL for the next couple of years.
I’ll keep updating my AAPL price forecast in my free Telegram group, which you’re welcome to join.
If Apple keeps delivering the most innovative products, then its stock price should see an organic increase till 2030. This is if the demand for flagship Apple products also increases considerably in the next few years. If the Fed starts to decrease interest rates in 2024, then Apple can reach a new all-time high by 2025. By 2030, the Apple share price prediction can be as high as $600.
Stock price of any company 10 years from now is anybody’s guess. Nevertheless, we can still use the price history to take a shot at Apple stock forecast 2040. Considering the exponential run of Apple price in the past decade, $1000 per share seems to be a quite conservative price target.
Apple had a scintillating run in 2023, setting a record high stock price in December. However, 2024 has turned out to be a different ball game, with AI grabbing the headlines. Apple’s Vision Pro VR headset has not captivated the market as imagined, not less because of its steep price tag. Also, the AI revolution has gathered far much greater pace than the metaverse dream, and Apple might have to restrategise.
Having said that, if there’s one company that has proven its ability to innovate and come up with captivating, cutting-edge product, its Apple. The company may have fallen behind in AI, but you can bet that it will conjure up something that will almost certainly capture the world’s attention.
As mentioned earlier, Apple stock is listed on US Exchange Nasdaq, which is the second largest stock exchange in the world. Apart from Nasdaq, you can also invest in AAPL by online retail brokers like Exness, eToro, Robinhood, Fidelity, etc. Personally, I trade on Exness where the signup is free from any hassle.
Investing in equities is one of the riskiest financial practices. Therefore one must assess their own risk appetite before investing in stocks. Nevertheless, considering the past returns of the US equities and tech stocks, it seems quite logical to maintain some Apple exposure in your long-term portfolio.
A stock split is simply an increase in the number of shares of a company while its market cap remains the same. As the name suggests, each share splits into multiple depending on the splitting factor. The last Apple stock split occurred in 2020. The reasons of this action include managing stock-based compensation for Apple employees and share repurchase programs.
In all of its price history, Apple stock has split a total of 5 times. These splits occurred on June 16 1987, June 21 2000, February 28, 2005, June 9 2014 and August 28, 2020. It has been observed that investor interest in stock increased every time after the announcement of a stock split.
When compared to the price of many Fortune 500 stocks, Apple stock price appears to be low. It must be noted here that the number of outstanding shares of every company is different. Therefore a market cap of a company is a better depiction of its worth than its stock price.
This post was last modified on May 31, 2024, 17:58 BST 17:58