Alibaba Share Price Prediction: An Extended Upside In the Making

Summary:
• Alibaba performed impressively in the midst of a China's economic downturn. This sets it up for a better run going forward. But there's more.

Alibaba share price has been on the rise in recent days and the upside momentum could be here for a while. With China announcing a major economic stimulus package, the e-commerce giant’s fortunes could experience substantial growth in the last quarter of the year. Alibaba share price is up by 50 percent year-to-date, and a substantial part of that has come in the last month, during which it has risen by 40 percent.

A strong sentiment and a healthy bottom line

After registering marginal gains in the first half of the year, Alibaba share price started building upside momentum in July and August, during which it gained a cummulative 15 percent. However,it September was its best month this year, as it exploded by 27.3 percent.

Alibaba Group Holdings (NYSE: BABA) was up by 2.5 in Monday’s pre-market session as China’s stock markets remained closed for the Golden Week Holiday. The company’s bottomline is strong, having reported a 4.59% rise in revenue for the first quarter of FY 2025. It also showed muscle in the AI segment, which experienced a 155 percent growth year-over-year.

The company’s performance was impressive, and more so considering the difficult operating macroeconomic environment in its largest market, China.Therefore, the recently-announced economic stimulus in the country could see Alibaba share price stay on the upside trajectory for longer periods. On the downside, however, a rise in trade wars between the United States and China could limit its growth headroom, both in terms of e-commerce sales and AI segment.

Alibaba share price prediction

Alibaba share price will likely pivot at 116.55, and the RSI suggests bullish control. In that case, the stock could rise to the first resistance at 117.80. However, a stronger momentum could break above that barrier to test 118.72. On the other hand, a move below 116.55 will favour the sellers to take control, with the first support likely to be at 155.77. However, extended bearishness could breach that level and invalidate the upside narrative. Meanwhile, the resulting momentum could take the share price lower to test the second support at 114.75.