AU Employment Change Preview: What Happens to the AUDUSD?

Summary:

The AUDUSD is in focus as Australia's employment data is released. This may have implications on the RBA's next actions with respect to negative rates.

The Australian employment report is due early Thursday morning (00:30 GMT to be precise). Last time out, the RBA Governor dropped a bombshell that blew out all expectations from the AU Employment report with just minutes to go. Despite the stellar news, the RBA Governor’s comments caused the AUDUSD to sink.

Market players will be hoping for something more straightforward this time around. Recovery of Australia’s labour market is expected to have slowed in October, and rightly so. Surging local coronavirus cases mean that wider lockdowns could shutter businesses. This situation inevitably leads to job losses, which could allow the RBA to tinker with the idea of negative rates. This may be a bearish situation for the AUDUSD, especially now that risky sentiment appears to have been stretched thin.

Trading the AUDUSD With the AU Employment Change

The consensus is for 26.7K jobs to have been lost, compared with the 29.5K jobs lost last time around, with a rise in the unemployment rate from 6.9% to 7.1%.

If employment change is -30.0K or more negative, along with an unemployment rate of 7.1% or more, this could present some weakness on the AUD. A downside move towards the demand zone at 0.72013 to 0.72301 may occur, but this move has to break down 0.72977 to become a reality. Further weakness below the demand zone towards the August lows at 0.71363 over the next few days may also be on the cards, if the report is particularly weak, as this drums up the possibility of negative rates being implemented at some point by the RBA.

On the flip side, employment change that is more positive than -26.7K, along with an unemployment rate of 7.1% or less may be useful for the AUD. This may promote some strength which may target 0.73382, with 0.73831 also lining up as a future target to the north. A full return to risky sentiment could produce a more robust upside response.