USDCHF Slumps 100 Pips On End-of-the-Month Money Flows

Summary:

End of the month money flows are pressuring the greenback, leading to a 100-pip drop on the USDCHF pair to reverse the days USD bullishness.

With the financial markets, sometimes you never know. The US Dollar had been on a bullish roll this Wednesday. However, this has unwound in the last hour as a result of month-end flows. This situation has manifested on the USDCHF with a 100-pip downside move in the last hour and a half.

Also fostering negative sentiment on the USD is a growing fear that the US elections may be a subject of a contest, if comments from US President Donald Trump at last night’s debate. These are the only possible explanations, as there is no other economic data out there that would impact the USD negatively.

Technical Outlook for USDCHF

This outlook is an ultra-short-term one, which features the 4-hour chart. The chart shows the rounding bottom/saucer pattern that has been identified on previous charts. The recent price movement shows a 1-2-3 reversal pattern, with the neckline of the saucer pattern being violated by the 4-hour candle at 0.91899. There has been a pullback to this price level.

If sellers re-enter the trade at the neckline and force more downward action on the pair, then the USDCHF may target the 0.91533 support as the immediate downside target. The 0.91361 price level constitutes an additional target, along with the 0.90809 price level.

On the flip side, failure of the 4-hour candle to break down the 0.91899 price support may allow the pair to push up to 0.92264. Only a higher close above 0.93126 enables the USDCHF to continue the recovery from the break of the saucer pattern.