- Summary:
- OPEC, IEA and EIA are set to release their readings and outlook for the oil market, and traders have positioned themselves for volatility.
Crude oil prices have risen marginally in the European trading session, as the market positions itself to key data releases. Brent crude futures traded at $82.21 per barrel, up by 0.16%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up by 0.58% and trading at $78.38. OPEC, Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency (IEA) are scheduled to release their outlooks for the global oil market in the next two days, and this is expected to inject volatility into the market. In addition, American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its inventory estimates.
The last reports released by OPEC and IEA had significant deviations in their narratives on the demand side outlook for crude oil. This triggered downside action by the commodity, as the market bought into the IEA report. However, the commodity has recently rallied after OPEC+ extended its cuts to the second half of the year. The oil cartel will release its monthly report on Tuesday, and that could provide hints into the balance between demand and supply.
API will release its weekly inventory figures in the hours following the OPEC+ report. However, the impact is likely to be muted, as greater focus will likely be on the EIA and IEA releases. In the medium term, crude oil prices will be supported by the Fed interest rate cuts expected to come in June. The move is expected to stimulate more economic productivity, thus increasing the demand for oil. Also, the commodity could get upthrust from the geopolitical developments in the Middle East as uncertainty persists over the trajectory of the proposed ceasefire.
Technical analysis
WTI Crude pivots at 77.60, and the buyers are in control as per the RSI momentum indicator. If the momentum is sustained, the 78.80 resistance will break, giving way to test the next resistance at 79.35. However, if resistance remains at 77.60, the momentum will favour the sellers. That could breach the support at 77.25, and potentially test 76.80 in extension.
